Summaries
- 22 July 2026Middle East energy shock is dominating macro right now — and published research is converging on the view that it's paralyzing central banks.
- 21 July 2026Two stories are driving markets today, according to this week's published macro research: a sharp escalation in US–Iran conflict threatening key oil chokepoints, and the hawkish central bank repricing that follows.
- 20 July 2026Middle East energy disruption and stretched AI valuations are the two forces pulling markets in opposite directions this week, according to the published research consensus.
- 19 July 2026Markets spent the week wrestling with a two-front shock: renewed US-Iran hostilities in the Gulf and a jolt to US tech leadership from China's AI progress.
- 17 July 2026Two forces are pulling markets in opposite directions right now: an energy supply shock tied to US-Iran tensions is lifting oil and gas, while a softer-than-expected June US inflation print has cooled Fed hike bets.
- 16 July 2026Two forces dominate macro research this week: US-Iran escalation rippling through oil and energy inflation, and the AI capex supercycle reshaping credit and equities.
- 15 July 2026Two forces are pulling markets in opposite directions today: a cooler US June CPI print and escalating Middle East energy tensions.
- 14 July 2026Today's macro tape is dominated by one story: a US naval blockade on Iranian shipping and a proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz cargo fee sent Brent crude nearly 10% higher in a single session, toward $83–$86/bbl. The…
- 13 July 2026Two stories are driving the macro conversation today, and published research links them tightly together.
- 10 July 2026Two stories are dominating macro research desks right now: the AI investment boom reshaping global equities, and the Middle East conflict rippling through energy, inflation, and central bank policy.
- 9 July 2026Two storylines are dominating macro commentary right now: the breakdown of the US–Iran ceasefire and a step-change in AI infrastructure spending.
- 8 July 2026Two stories are dominating macro desks today: a fresh flare-up between the US and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, and the question of whether Fed Chair Warsh is really about to hike.
- 7 July 2026Three macro storylines are dominating research desks this week: where the Fed goes next, oil risk from the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the AI capex boom can survive earnings season.
- 6 July 2026A weak US June payrolls print — just 57,000 jobs with downward revisions to prior months — has become the pivot point for global rate expectations, according to a broad sweep of published research this week.
- 3 July 2026Weak US June payrolls reshaped the macro conversation this week — and split the research community on what the Fed does next.
- 2 July 2026Two forces are shaping global macro right now: a data-dependent Fed after a soft June jobs report, and oil giving back its geopolitical risk premium as the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
- 1 July 2026Three macro stories dominated research desks this week: an uncertain but hawkish-leaning Fed, a fragile easing of Middle East risk, and an AI capex wave that's rewriting growth and inflation math.
- 30 June 2026Three macro currents are dominating published research this week.
- 29 June 2026Two stories are dominating macro desks this week: a more hawkish Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh, and a fragile ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz that's pulling oil lower for now.
- 26 June 2026Two macro stories dominate published research this week: a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Warsh wrestling with sticky inflation, and a US-Iran agreement that has reopened the Strait of Hormuz and repriced oil…
- 25 June 2026Three forces are dominating markets right now: sticky US inflation, a Fed signaling hawkishness without committing, and a fast-collapsing Middle East risk premium reshaping oil and rate expectations all at once.
- 24 June 2026Three forces converged in macro commentary today: a hawkish Fed repricing, a global semiconductor sell-off tied to AI valuation worries, and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz easing oil. Together they drove…
- 23 June 2026Three macro stories are dominating published research today: a US-Iran de-escalation reshaping oil, a hawkish Fed repricing under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and fresh UK political risk after Keir Starmer's resignation.
- 22 June 2026Two stories are driving global markets right now: a fragile US–Iran ceasefire and a sharply more hawkish Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
- 19 June 2026Two macro stories dominated research desks this week, and they're tangled together: a US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and a hawkish surprise at the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- 18 June 2026Two stories are dominating macro conversations right now: a hawkish reset at the Federal Reserve and a US-Iran deal that's pulling the war premium out of oil.
- 17 June 2026Two stories drove macro research today, and they're tangled together: a hawkish Fed pivot under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and a US-Iran deal that crashed oil prices — reshaping the inflation outlook in the process.
- 16 June 2026Two stories are dominating macro commentary right now: the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz ceasefire and what the June FOMC meeting will signal under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- 15 June 2026Two stories are dominating macro desks this week: a US-Iran ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and a rare cluster of central bank decisions landing within days of each other.
- 12 June 2026Today's macro conversation is dominated by one question: does a US–Iran ceasefire reset the global rates picture?