The big picture
Today's dominant signal across markets: the AI trade is unwinding in every asset class at once.
Published research this week describes tech and semis selling off, AI-linked corporate bonds blowing out, Treasury yields pulled lower by safety flows, and the dollar losing its AI-capex tailwind. The boom that drove US equity outperformance has become a…
Read the full summary →Two forces dominated published macro research this week: sticky US inflation colliding with a dovish Fed, and growing cracks in the AI capex story.
On inflation, the broad research consensus flagged September's hot US prints (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%) as the week's pivotal data. Yet most analysts still expect the Fed to hold in October, with December as the live meeting — a view shaped by dovish signals from…
Read the full summary →Individual markets
Gold
Gold research is split today, but the near-term bearish camp currently has the louder voice.
Silver
Silver research is split by time horizon, not direction.
Platinum
Platinum has a multi-year upside case, according to recently published research.
Palladium
Palladium may be sitting on a coiled spring, according to one strand of recently published commentary.
Copper
Copper's bullish case just got a bolder price target from independent research.
Oil
Oil research skews firmly bullish right now, with one notable exception taking the long view.
Natural gas
Published research is uniformly bullish on natural gas and LNG this week — across Henry Hub, European TTF, UK…
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is drawing fresh conviction as a long-horizon core holding, according to research published this week…
US equities
Published research this week leans cautious on US equities near-term, with the loudest warnings centered on…
European equities
European equity research is split today, with the bullish and bearish cases landing on different corners of…
US bonds
Treasury yields: the published research is split by horizon, not by direction.
EU bonds
Published research this week leans toward higher Eurozone yields and wider French spreads, with one clear…
EUR/USD
EUR/USD research is split by time horizon, not by conviction — and that distinction matters.