Three forces dominated macro research today: a sharp climb in long-dated US Treasury yields, escalating Middle East risk pushing oil above $90, and the AI capex boom reshaping inflation and capital flows.
On yields, a wide swath of published research flagged the US 30-year hitting 5.30–5.34%, a 19-year high. Analysts split on the driver: some point to fiscal deficits and term premium, others to record corporate and hyperscaler bond issuance, and a third camp to Japan and China trimming Treasury holdings. One contrarian thread argues most of the move is simply real yields normalizing toward pre-2008 levels — not fiscal panic.
On oil, researchers tie stalled US-Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz risk to Brent near $91, feeding back into inflation and yields. Views diverge on whether maritime pressure or actual escalation dominates from here.
On AI, the published consensus treats the multi-trillion-dollar buildout as structurally inflationary near term, though some recent work suggests it may lower long-run real rates via automation.
China's weak July data added a fourth worry: softer commodity demand. Key catalysts ahead: FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole, and Australian CPI.