Long-end US yields are the story this week, and published research is split on whether policymakers can contain the pressure.
Across a wide swath of recent analyst commentary, 30-year Treasury yields near multi-decade highs are being read as a vote on US fiscal sustainability, not just Fed policy. Researchers describe Treasury Secretary Bessent's response — doubling buybacks to $4 billion and eyeing the $1 trillion cash pile — as a real market-calming tool, though a broad consensus of published views calls buybacks a "sticking plaster" that leaves the deficit untouched.
Jackson Hole is the near-term flashpoint. Analyst expectations for Fed Chair Warsh's Friday speech range from a major framework reveal to near-empty signaling, with one camp arguing September hike odds are rising and another pointing to the soft 0.2% core PCE print — which dropped hike odds to 36% — as evidence a hold is more likely.
Elsewhere, some recently published work warns that BOJ tightening (over 80% priced for September) could pull Japanese capital home and add pressure to US Treasuries. Researchers also flag Australia's hot July CPI as reopening the RBA hike debate.