Middle East supply shocks, the July US CPI print, and the AI capex boom are dominating the macro conversation this week.
Published research broadly agrees the US–Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz is the main force keeping Brent around $87–89, along with rising gasoil cracks and European gas prices. Several analysts flag Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery and Red Sea shipping as tightening diesel and LNG markets into winter.
On the Fed, the consensus view treats Wednesday's CPI as the pivotal event, with headline expected near 3.4% and core near 2.5%. Researchers are split: one camp argues disinflation is resuming and the Fed can hold, while others still see a September hike in play, pointing to Cleveland Fed President Hammack's hawkish dissent and a weak –23k July payrolls print. FedWatch odds sit near 50/50.
On AI, some recently-published views project hyperscaler capex toward $1–1.2 trillion through 2027 and remain constructive on earnings. A contrarian thread warns of circular financing and rising real rates if AI revenue disappoints.
Elsewhere, researchers expect the ECB to hike to 2.50% in September, while the RBA holds at 4.35% with a hawkish tilt. Yen weakness past 159 is narrowing Tokyo's intervention options.