Published research this week is centered on one story: the Fed's 25bp hike to 3.75%–4.00%, landing alongside a Middle East oil supply shock and US 10-year Treasury yields briefly above 5% for the first time since 2007.
The consensus read across analyst notes is that the updated dot plot now points to at least one more hike in 2026, with the median fed funds projection at 4.125%, a neutral rate nudged up to 3.2%, and the return to 2% core inflation pushed out to 2029. Brent has been driven toward $108–110/bbl by the Saudi East-West pipeline outage and Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Researchers are split on what comes next. One camp argues today's inflation is supply-driven and largely rate-insensitive, favoring a pause. A contrarian thread frames this as the start of a renewed cycle, pointing to AI-related capex, fiscal deficits, and a higher neutral rate keeping yields elevated into 2027–28.
Recently-published views also flag the BoE and BoJ as live: some analysts see a November UK hike in play and a 25bp BoJ move on the table Sept 18.