Two macro stories are dominating research desks this week: the sustainability of US AI spending, and shipping risk around the Strait of Hormuz.
On AI, a broad research consensus flags that US hyperscaler capex is on track to hit roughly 3% of US GDP by 2027. Several analysts warn that Big Tech AI revenues lean heavily on OpenAI and Anthropic, both burning billions a year. One camp draws explicit parallels to the dot-com telecom bust and the mid-2000s housing cycle, arguing a rapid unwind could shave nearly a percentage point off annual GDP. Others note record S&P 500 options activity signals mechanical bullishness that could reverse fast. A contrarian thread stays structurally bullish, pointing to 10x growth in global AI agent adoption by 2035.
On Hormuz, researchers report a 3–4% overnight jump in Brent tied to an Iran-Oman shipping deal that reportedly bars "hostile country" vessels. Some argue the exclusion clauses are outright bullish for crude; others caution unconfirmed headlines rarely produce durable moves.
Watch Friday's US payrolls: consensus sits near 80k, with one published forecast well above at 125k.