The dominant macro story right now is the collision between US fiscal strain and rising yields, with a Middle East energy shock layered on top.
Published research broadly argues that 30-year Treasury yields at multi-decade highs reflect rising term premium and real yields — not just inflation worries — driven by a structural deficit near 6% of GDP and federal debt above $40 trillion. The Treasury's doubled long-end buyback program (at least $4bn per operation) delivered only a brief 9–10bp rally before yields snapped back. A cross-section of analysts read the simultaneous dollar drop and rally in gold and bitcoin as erosion of US fiscal credibility rather than a healthy easing signal. Some also flag AI-driven hyperscaler borrowing as a structural add to long-end supply.
A contrarian thread pushes back, arguing 5%+ long yields are simply a normalisation to pre-QE history, with debt-servicing costs still near 1991 levels thanks to low average coupons.
On energy, one camp treats Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Brent near $94 as a live supply shock complicating the Fed's path into Jackson Hole; another notes secondary sanctions on China have not yet moved crack spreads.
Researchers also highlight the UK, France, and Italy as structurally vulnerable, while Japan's domestic savings base is seen as insulating JGBs even as BOJ normalisation proceeds.