Today's macro story, according to the published research consensus: the Fed's Jackson Hole pivot has jolted global rate expectations, and a fresh Middle East energy shock is stacking on top of it.
Researchers broadly read Chair Warsh's speech as materially hawkish — reaffirming the 2% inflation target, calling financial conditions "not yet restrictive," and stepping back from forward guidance. Across published notes, September hike odds have moved from around 30% to near 60%, 2-year Treasury yields jumped roughly 10bps, and the curve bear-flattened. One camp of analysts takes this at face value and pencils in a September hike; a contrarian thread argues the Fed is talking tough without acting, risking a credibility gap versus DM peers already hiking.
On oil, several research desks flag renewed US-Iran escalation and near-total Strait of Hormuz disruption as pushing Brent above $90 and reigniting global inflation pressure — with Asian FX, the yen past 160, and the RBNZ's likely hike all downstream effects.
Friday's US payrolls print is widely cited as the decisive input.