Three themes are dominating macro research desks this week: cooling US data pushing back Fed hike expectations, Middle East tensions squeezing energy markets, and a global drift toward tighter policy led by Japan.
On the US, the published research consensus is that July retail sales (-0.6%), softer inflation prints, and weak consumer sentiment have slashed September Fed hike odds from roughly 50% to as low as single digits, weakening the dollar. Analysts broadly expect this week's FOMC minutes to look stale against the newer data.
On energy, researchers widely flag Strait of Hormuz disruption — shipping down about 90% — as keeping Brent near $89–91 and lifting commodity-linked currencies. Fresh Iran sanctions and hardliner consolidation in Tehran are seen as reducing near-term de-escalation odds.
On Japan, one camp of analysts puts the odds of a 25bp BoJ hike in September near 80%, citing yen stabilization efforts and sticky above-2% inflation. A contrarian thread points to Japan's Q2 GDP miss as a reason for caution.
Divergence: some researchers argue strong Q2 earnings form a durable equity floor; others warn stretched valuations and consumer softness signal correction risk.