Three forces are dominating macro research desks right now: US inflation and the Fed's next move, the AI investment supercycle, and Middle East oil supply risk.
On inflation, the published consensus reads July CPI at 3.4% as removing near-term hike urgency while keeping a hold — not a cut — as the base case. Core is still above 2%, and markets have pared September hike odds. Some analysts note Fed Chair Warsh is deliberately dialing back forward guidance, sustaining yield volatility. A contrarian thread argues AI capex, de-globalisation and fiscal expansion could keep rates elevated into 2027.
On AI, researchers broadly frame the infrastructure buildout as the dominant demand driver, with US investment-grade issuance tracked to top $2 trillion in 2026 — over 60% tied to tech. One camp flags circular financing between leading AI firms and Chinese model competition compressing inference costs as real risks to hyperscaler economics.
On energy, analysts converge on the Strait of Hormuz disruption as the key supply shock, with a projected 1.8 mb/d Q3 deficit complicating the Fed's job.
Divergence is sharpest on whether the Fed's next move leans tighten or hold.