Today's dominant macro story: published research broadly agrees the Fed's next move is a hold, even as long-end Treasury yields keep pushing higher for structural reasons.
Researchers point to July core CPI near 0.21% MoM and a soft PPI print, which have cut September hike odds to roughly 29–35% from above 50% a week earlier. Analysts also flag the FOMC's internal split — Cleveland's Hammack pushing for action, Richmond's Barkin non-committal, Chicago's Goolsbee cautiously optimistic — as reinforcing data dependency.
At the same time, a wide consensus of recent research ties the rise in 30-year yields (which touched 25-year highs near 5.23–5.27%) to a projected $2.1T FY2026 US deficit above 6% of GDP, with record corporate issuance from AI-infrastructure spending adding to supply pressure.
Views diverge on what comes next: one camp treats the Fed as effectively done, while a contrarian thread argues supply-side inflation and persistent military spending mean a further hike can't be ruled out.
Key watch items flagged: Jackson Hole, July FOMC minutes, August CPI and payrolls.