Three forces are dominating macro research desks this week: a shockingly weak US July jobs report, an escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis, and questions over the AI spending boom.
On jobs, the published research consensus flags a stunning miss — payrolls fell 23,000 versus +80,000 expected, with 103,000 in downward revisions to prior months. Analysts broadly argue September Fed hike odds have dropped to roughly 40–50%, and Wednesday's CPI print is widely framed as the next decisive test.
On oil, researchers point to Iran's hardening demands — troop withdrawals, sanctions relief, war damages — as blocking any quick resolution. Brent has pushed above $87 and WTI toward $82, and some recently published views tie the crude spike directly to rising global bond yields.
On AI, a contrarian thread of recent research warns the $750B–$1T hyperscaler capex wave is propping up US earnings and GDP but looks stretched: revenues reportedly trail capex by roughly 15x, with circular investment patterns echoing the dot-com era.
Views diverge on the Fed's next move, with the most dovish camp arguing staff inflation forecasts will be cut materially.