The week's dominant theme: the US Treasury, not the Fed, has become the main actor shaping the yield curve — and markets are pushing back.
Researchers highlighted Secretary Bessent's expanded long-end buyback program (roughly $4B+ per operation) as a "YCC lite" attempt to cap borrowing costs as the 10-year pushed to 4.74% and the 30-year touched 5.33%, the highest since 2007. The relief was fleeting. Analysts tied the pressure to a ~$2.1T structural deficit, heavy issuance, and FOMC minutes that leaned higher-for-longer, with no committee appetite for cuts.
A second thread: an intensifying US sanctions push against Iran drove crude up more than 5% on the week, reinforcing the term premium story and lifting energy names.
Commentary also flagged tail risk in an $8.5T hedge-fund Treasury basis trade should yields move sharply. Abroad, Japan's firmer July CPI and solid flash PMI had researchers citing an ~80% market-implied probability of a September BOJ hike.
Bottom line from the published work: fiscal dominance is the story; monetary policy is the sideshow.