Stance: who is leaning hawkish or dovish
Average stance of each bank’s speeches and statements over the last 30 days; the shift compares it with the 30 days before.
Latest rate decisions
| Central bank | Date | Action | Rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 16 Sep 2026 | Hike +25bp | 4.00% Federal funds target (upper bound) | 12-0 |
| European Central Bank | 10 Sep 2026 | Hike +25bp | - ECB key interest rates (deposit facility rate) | unanimous |
| Bank of Japan | 18 Sep 2026 | Hike +25bp | 1.25% Uncollateralized overnight call rate | 7-2 |
| Bank of England | 17 Sep 2026 | Hold | 3.75% Bank Rate | - |
| Bank of Canada | 16 Sep 2026 | Hold | 2.25% Bank of Canada policy interest rate | - |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | 29 Sep 2026 | Hike +25bp | 4.60% RBA cash rate target | unanimous |
| Swiss National Bank | 24 Sep 2026 | Hold | 0.00% SNB policy rate | - |
The most recent decision from each bank, taken from its own announcement. No decision captured in the last 120 days: People's Bank of China.
Official forecasts: real GDP growth
| Source | Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | United States | 2.3% | ▲ +0.1 | 2.4% | ▲ +0.1 |
| ECB | Euro area | 0.9% | unchanged | 1.4% | ▼ -0.1 |
| ECB | France | 0.5% | - | - | - |
| ECB | Germany | 1.0% | - | - | - |
| Bank of Japan | Japan | 0.6% | ▲ +0.1 | 0.8% | ▲ +0.1 |
| Bank of England | United Kingdom | 0.4% | ▲ +0.3 | - | - |
| Bank of Canada | Canada | 0.7% | - | 1.8% | - |
| Bank of Canada | World | 2.8% | - | 3.3% | - |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | Australia | 1.4% | ▲ +0.1 | 1.6% | ▲ +0.2 |
| Swiss National Bank | China | 4.6% | - | - | - |
| Swiss National Bank | Euro area | 0.8% | - | 1.1% | - |
| Swiss National Bank | Switzerland | 1.8% | - | 1.5% | - |
| Swiss National Bank | United States | 2.1% | - | - | - |
| Swiss National Bank | World | 3.2% | - | 3.3% | - |
| Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | United Kingdom | 0.9% | - | 1.1% | - |
Official forecasts: inflation
| Source | Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | United Statescore | 3.4% | ▲ +0.1 | 2.5% | unchanged |
| Federal Reserve | United States | 3.7% | ▲ +0.1 | 2.3% | unchanged |
| ECB | Euro areacore | - | - | 2.6% | unchanged |
| ECB | Euro area | 3.0% | unchanged | 2.5% | unchanged |
| Bank of Japan | Japancore | 2.5% | ▼ -0.1 | 2.6% | unchanged |
| Bank of Japan | Japan | 2.5% | ▼ -0.3 | 2.4% | ▲ +0.1 |
| Bank of England | United Kingdom | 3.7% | unchanged | 4.2% | ▲ +0.2 |
| Bank of Canada | Canada | - | - | 2.0% | - |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | Australiacore | 3.0% | ▼ -0.1 | 2.4% | ▼ -0.1 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | Australia | 2.8% | ▲ +0.4 | 2.4% | ▼ -0.1 |
| Swiss National Bank | Switzerland | 0.7% | - | 0.8% | - |
| Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development | United Kingdom | 3.7% | - | 2.4% | - |
The latest published projections of the central banks above and of multilateral institutions (IMF, OECD, World Bank). Revision is the change from the same institution’s previous edition, in percentage points.
Who said what this week
- 17 Oct 2026 · StatementHawkish +0.8Christine Lagarde
The energy shock is too large to look through but a measured response remains appropriate to keep inflation in check; future policy will follow a comprehensive assessment of incoming data based on the reaction function.
inflationenergypolicy ratefinancial stabilitydigital euroChristine Lagarde: IMFC Statement → - 15 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.3Koeda Junko
Given considerable upside risks to prices and still accommodative financial conditions, the Bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate, adjusting it in a timely manner.
inflationpolicy rateneutral ratebalance sheetaiSpeech by Board Member KOEDA in Kumamoto (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan) → - 15 Oct 2026 · SpeechDovish -1.0Pan Gongsheng
The PBOC will continue to implement an appropriately accommodative monetary policy to support steady growth and smooth financial market operation.
monetary policyglobal imbalancesfinancial regulationgeopoliticsGovernor Pan Gongsheng Attended G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting → - 13 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5
If economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to 2 percent. The hikes need not come at consecutive meetings but should be in place within an acceptable period of time.
inflationmonetary policycentral bank communicationlabour marketenergyThe signaling value of the summary of economic projections → - 13 Oct 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.0Hike +25bp
The Board approved a 25bp hike in the primary credit rate to 4 percent and a rise in interest on reserve balances from 3.65 to 3.9 percent, effective September 17, 2026, supporting the FOMC's decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
discount rateinterest rate hikeinflationlabour marketai buildoutMinutes of the Board's discount rate meetings on August 17, September 9, and September 16, 2026 → - 13 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +0.5
Returning inflation fully to target has taken long because the Committee balanced reducing inflation against sustaining employment; stronger wage growth sustains inflation, services prices are rarely cut, and elevated inflation can raise expectations and persistence.
inflationwage growthservices pricesinflation expectationsmonetary policyWhy is the last mile of disinflation taking so long? →
Central banks
How this page is made
We collect what central banks and multilateral institutions publish: rate decisions, meeting minutes, officials’ speeches and staff projections. AI reads each document and records who is speaking, whether they vote on policy, the forward guidance, any decision taken and any forecasts.
Stance is scored from strongly dovish (−2) to strongly hawkish (+2): above +0.2 reads as hawkish, below −0.2 as dovish, in between as neutral. It is an interpretation of the wording, not an official classification. Figures are as stated in the source document; always check the original, linked from every entry.