Three forces are driving markets today, according to the latest published research: a global bond yield surge tied to the Fed, a Middle East energy shock feeding back into inflation, and an intensifying fight over AI regulation.
On rates, a broad consensus of analysts flags the US 10-year yield breaching 5% for the first time since 2007, with markets pricing a 92–95% chance of a 25bp Fed hike this month. BIS Chair Warsh's move away from forward guidance is adding uncertainty, and one strand of research argues large US deficits, pressure on Fed independence, and erratic trade policy keep inflation risks structurally high.
On energy, multiple research notes converge on the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown and Strait of Hormuz tensions pushing Brent toward $105–110/bbl and tightening European gas.
On AI, researchers are split: some argue the capex cycle is intact, pointing to Taiwan tech revenues up 8–10% month-on-month and $15bn in supplier backlogs. A more cautious camp warns that sharp chip-stock losses and rising regulatory risk could dent near-term spending.