Three macro stories are dominating published research this week: a surge in long-end bond yields, Jackson Hole, and rising US geopolitical pressure on Iran.
On yields, a broad swath of analysts flags that US 30-year yields hit multi-decade highs near 5.3%, prompting the Treasury to double long-end buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from September. The published consensus is that the program is too small to cap yields — one analysis notes an initial 9bp rally fully reversed within two days. Researchers point to structural drivers: fiscal deficits above 6% of GDP, AI-related corporate issuance, and fading official-sector demand.
On Jackson Hole, researchers converge on Fed Chair Warsh's Friday speech as the pivotal event, with futures-implied odds of a September hike spanning a wide 30–65% range depending on whether he leans hawkish or signals that high long-end yields are already tightening conditions.
On geopolitics, several analysts highlight Treasury Secretary Bessent's Iran oil crackdown, with warnings of secondary sanctions on Chinese banks seen as a potential US-China flashpoint. A contrarian note: oil actually fell ~2.5% on the announcement.