Markets are recalibrating after a hawkish signal from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole — and published research is broadly reading it the same way.
The consensus across this week's research is that Warsh reaffirmed the 2% inflation target as "firm and fixed," called current financial conditions too loose, and dropped forward guidance. Analysts note futures now price a September rate hike near 50–57%, up from the mid-30s.
A parallel thread in recent research flags structural upward pressure on long-dated US Treasury yields, citing deficits and a national debt above $40 trillion. Most published views argue Treasury buyback operations are too small to cap long-end yields durably, though a minority frames them as routine liquidity management rather than a policy tool.
Researchers also point to the AI capex boom as the dominant force behind US corporate investment — with one contrarian thread warning of revenue concentration risk in a handful of loss-making AI firms, and some views flagging it as a fresh source of demand-pull inflation.
Key catalysts researchers are watching: August payrolls, August CPI, and the September 16 FOMC decision.