Two storylines are dominating macro discussions right now: where major central banks go next on rates, and whether US fiscal math can coexist with the bond market's demand for higher long-end yields.
On policy, published research is split on whether the Fed hikes in September or holds for a sixth straight meeting, with one camp of analysts leaning toward a hold and others noting sticky PCE keeps a hike live at roughly 36–40% odds. Multiple research threads flag Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote as the pivotal event, arguing his pullback from forward guidance has itself become a driver of term premium. Australia's July CPI surprise has researchers pricing an RBA move by November, while the consensus read puts BoJ September hike odds near 85%.
On US fiscal, the published consensus points to a 6–7% of GDP deficit, debt above $40 trillion, and record corporate issuance crowding out Treasury demand and steepening the curve. Treasury's doubled long-end buybacks are viewed skeptically — a contrarian thread frames them as delaying necessary discipline rather than resolving the imbalance.