Bank of Japan balance sheet
Bank of Japan, total assets
¥625tn
−¥14.5tn in 3 months · Sep 2026
Total assets of the Bank of Japan, month end. Shrinking as the BoJ tapers its JGB purchases.
Source: Bank of Japan, Bank of Japan Accounts · source
All readings
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Change | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Japan balance sheet | ¥625tn | Sep 2026 | −¥14.5tn in 3 months | Bank of Japan, total assets |
| Inflation (CPI) | 1.9% | Aug 2026 | +0.4 pp in 3 months | Core 1.7% · BoJ target 2% |
| Firms' inflation outlook, 5 years ahead | 2.5% | Q3 2026 | −0.1 pp in 1 quarter | Above the 2% target |
| Sahm-style rule (recession signal) | 0.00 | Aug 2026 | −0.10 in 3 months | Below the 0.50 recession trigger |
| Real GDP growth | 0.7% | Q2 2026 | +0.2 pp in 1 quarter | +0.4% on the quarter (+1.4% annualised) |
| Industrial production | 3.6% | Jul 2026 | +1.7 pp in 3 months | Output up on a year earlier |
| Retail sales volume | −1.2% | Jun 2026 | −1.1 pp in 3 months | Volumes down on a year earlier |
| Tankan business conditions | 24 | Q3 2026 | +2 in 1 quarter | Manufacturers +24 · non-manufacturers +35 |
| OECD leading indicator | 100.3 | Sep 2026 | +0.1 in 3 months | Above trend, rising over 3 months |
| Unemployment rate | 2.5% | Aug 2026 | 0.0 pp in 3 months | -0.1 pp on a year earlier |
| Wage growth | 5.0% | Jul 2026 | −0.2 pp in 3 months | Real pay +3.1% after inflation |
| Energy and food inflation | −0.7% | Aug 2026 | +2.0 pp in 3 months | Energy -0.7% · food +3.4% |
| Yield curve: 10y minus 2y | +102 bp | Oct 20, 2026 | −27 bp in 13 weeks | Positive slope |
| Real policy rate | −0.70% | Aug 2026 | −0.25 pp in 3 months | Policy rate below core inflation |
Not shown for Japan: No free daily financial-stress index or market-based inflation expectations for Japan; firms' expectations from the Tankan are shown instead. Services inflation is not published separately in the comparable OECD data.
Key readings
Inflation (CPI)
Core 1.7% · BoJ target 2%
1.9%
+0.4 pp in 3 months · Aug 2026
Consumer prices vs a year earlier. Core leaves out energy and food, the most volatile parts, so it shows the underlying trend better.
Source: OECD, consumer price indices · source
Firms' inflation outlook, 5 years ahead
Above the 2% target
2.5%
−0.1 pp in 1 quarter · Q3 2026
Average inflation Japanese firms expect five years ahead, from the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey. Japan has no free market-based inflation expectations.
Source: Bank of Japan, Tankan (Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises) · source
Sahm-style rule (recession signal)
Below the 0.50 recession trigger
0.00
−0.10 in 3 months · Aug 2026
How far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point of the past 12 months, in percentage points. In the US, a rise of 0.50 or more has marked the start of every recession since 1970. Here FinChiefs applies the same formula to the Japanese unemployment rate, using today's revised data. It is not an official indicator, and the 0.50 line has not been proven outside the US.
Source: OECD, monthly unemployment rates · source
More indicators
Growth & activity
Real GDP growth
+0.4% on the quarter (+1.4% annualised)
0.7%
+0.2 pp in 1 quarter · Q2 2026
Inflation-adjusted economic output vs the same quarter a year earlier; the read gives the latest quarter's change.
Source: OECD, quarterly national accounts · source
Industrial production
Output up on a year earlier
3.6%
+1.7 pp in 3 months · Jul 2026
Output of factories, mines and utilities vs a year earlier. Volatile, but often turns early in a downturn.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
Retail sales volume
Volumes down on a year earlier
−1.2%
−1.1 pp in 3 months · Jun 2026
Retail sales adjusted for prices, vs a year earlier: a read on consumer spending.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
Tankan business conditions
Manufacturers +24 · non-manufacturers +35
24
+2 in 1 quarter · Q3 2026
Share of large firms saying business conditions are good minus the share saying they are bad, from the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey, for manufacturers (Mfg) and non-manufacturers (Non-mfg). Above zero, more firms report good conditions.
Source: Bank of Japan, Tankan (Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises) · source
OECD leading indicator
Above trend, rising over 3 months
100.3
+0.1 in 3 months · Sep 2026
The OECD's Composite Leading Indicator, built to anticipate turning points in activity six to nine months ahead. 100 is the long-term trend.
Source: OECD, Composite Leading Indicator · source
Jobs & wages
Unemployment rate
-0.1 pp on a year earlier
2.5%
0.0 pp in 3 months · Aug 2026
Share of people in the labour force who are out of work and looking for a job.
Source: OECD, monthly unemployment rates · source
Wage growth
Real pay +3.1% after inflation
5.0%
−0.2 pp in 3 months · Jul 2026
Hourly earnings in manufacturing (the OECD's comparable measure) vs a year earlier. When pay grows faster than prices, real incomes are rising; the read compares it with headline inflation.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
Inflation detail
Energy and food inflation
Energy -0.7% · food +3.4%
−0.7%
+2.0 pp in 3 months · Aug 2026
The volatile parts of inflation, vs a year earlier. They swing with oil, gas and crop prices and feed through to the headline rate fast.
Source: OECD, consumer price indices · source
Rates & credit
Yield curve: 10y minus 2y
Positive slope
+102 bp
−27 bp in 13 weeks · Oct 20, 2026
Ten-year minus two-year government bond yield. An inverted curve (below zero) has come before most US recessions, usually with a long and variable lag.
Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan · source
Real policy rate
Policy rate below core inflation
−0.70%
−0.25 pp in 3 months · Aug 2026
The Bank of Japan's policy rate minus core inflation over the past year. Above zero, policy is restraining the economy in real terms; how high counts as tight depends on the neutral rate, which nobody observes directly.
Source: BIS central bank policy rates; inflation as above · source