United States yield curve
| Maturity | Latest | 1 month ago | Change | 1 year ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 4.12% | 3.96% | +16 bp | 4.20% | −8 bp |
| 3M | 4.26% | 4.14% | +12 bp | 4.02% | +24 bp |
| 6M | 4.34% | 4.22% | +12 bp | 3.79% | +55 bp |
| 1Y | 4.46% | 4.45% | +1 bp | 3.54% | +92 bp |
| 2Y | 4.74% | 4.74% | 0 bp | 3.41% | +133 bp |
| 3Y | 4.82% | 4.82% | 0 bp | 3.42% | +140 bp |
| 5Y | 4.89% | 4.86% | +3 bp | 3.55% | +134 bp |
| 7Y | 4.98% | 4.94% | +4 bp | 3.74% | +124 bp |
| 10Y | 5.09% | 5.01% | +8 bp | 3.99% | +110 bp |
| 20Y | 5.47% | 5.39% | +8 bp | 4.56% | +91 bp |
| 30Y | 5.43% | 5.35% | +8 bp | 4.58% | +85 bp |
Treasury par yields. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury · source
Euro area yield curve
| Maturity | Latest | 1 month ago | Change | 1 year ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 2.58% | 2.51% | +7 bp | 1.90% | +69 bp |
| 6M | 2.71% | 2.72% | −1 bp | 1.89% | +83 bp |
| 1Y | 2.87% | 2.99% | −11 bp | 1.88% | +100 bp |
| 2Y | 2.99% | 3.19% | −20 bp | 1.90% | +109 bp |
| 3Y | 3.03% | 3.23% | −20 bp | 1.96% | +107 bp |
| 5Y | 3.11% | 3.28% | −18 bp | 2.15% | +96 bp |
| 7Y | 3.22% | 3.38% | −16 bp | 2.36% | +86 bp |
| 10Y | 3.39% | 3.54% | −15 bp | 2.65% | +74 bp |
| 20Y | 3.69% | 3.85% | −15 bp | 3.13% | +56 bp |
| 30Y | 3.67% | 3.80% | −13 bp | 3.10% | +57 bp |
AAA government spot curve. Source: European Central Bank · source
United Kingdom yield curve
| Maturity | Latest | 1 month ago | Change | 1 year ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M | 4.24% | 4.22% | +1 bp | – | – |
| 1Y | 4.44% | 4.47% | −3 bp | 3.79% | +66 bp |
| 2Y | 4.67% | 4.69% | −2 bp | 3.72% | +95 bp |
| 3Y | 4.78% | 4.80% | −2 bp | 3.75% | +103 bp |
| 5Y | 4.92% | 4.95% | −3 bp | 3.94% | +98 bp |
| 7Y | 5.08% | 5.12% | −3 bp | 4.20% | +88 bp |
| 10Y | 5.34% | 5.39% | −4 bp | 4.60% | +75 bp |
| 20Y | 5.87% | 5.97% | −10 bp | 5.37% | +50 bp |
| 30Y | 5.86% | 6.02% | −15 bp | 5.49% | +38 bp |
Gilt zero-coupon curve. Source: Bank of England · source
Japan yield curve
| Maturity | Latest | 1 month ago | Change | 1 year ago | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | 1.65% | 1.56% | +9 bp | 0.73% | +92 bp |
| 2Y | 1.92% | 1.85% | +7 bp | 0.92% | +100 bp |
| 3Y | 2.05% | 1.99% | +6 bp | 1.00% | +105 bp |
| 5Y | 2.33% | 2.31% | +3 bp | 1.21% | +112 bp |
| 7Y | 2.55% | 2.55% | −1 bp | 1.39% | +116 bp |
| 10Y | 2.96% | 3.00% | −4 bp | 1.66% | +130 bp |
| 20Y | 3.80% | 3.84% | −4 bp | 2.66% | +114 bp |
| 30Y | 4.04% | 4.08% | −4 bp | 3.13% | +91 bp |
| 40Y | 4.04% | 4.07% | −3 bp | 3.34% | +70 bp |
JGB benchmark yields. Source: Ministry of Finance, Japan · source
US 2s10s spread since 1990
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield in basis points, weekly. Below zero the curve is inverted; shaded bands are US recessions as dated by the NBER.
US 3m10y spread since 1990
10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield, weekly: the spread many recession models use.
10-year government bond yields, last 10 years
Sources: U.S. Department of the Treasury · European Central Bank · Bank of England · Ministry of Finance, Japan
About the yield curve
What is the yield curve?
It plots what a government pays to borrow for different lengths of time, from a few months to thirty years. Normally longer loans pay more, so the curve slopes up.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
When short-term yields rise above long-term ones the curve is inverted. Markets then expect rates to fall, usually because growth is expected to slow. In the US, an inverted 2s10s or 3m10y spread has preceded most recessions since the 1970s, though often by a year or more, and not every inversion was followed by one.
Why are the curves built differently?
Each country’s official source publishes its own measure: the US Treasury publishes par yields, the ECB a fitted spot curve for AAA-rated euro-area governments, the Bank of England a fitted zero-coupon gilt curve, and Japan’s Ministry of Finance benchmark JGB yields. Levels are comparable in direction and broad size, not to the basis point.