Financial conditions
Looser than average
−0.50
+0.02 in 13 weeks · Oct 9, 2026
Chicago Fed NFCI. Zero is the long-run average; below zero means easier financing conditions.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, via FRED · source
All readings
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Change | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial conditions | −0.50 | Oct 9, 2026 | +0.02 in 13 weeks | Looser than average |
| Financial stress | −0.72 | Oct 9, 2026 | +0.16 in 13 weeks | Below-average stress |
| Net liquidity | $5.87tn | Oct 14, 2026 | −$115bn in 13 weeks | Fed assets minus the Treasury account and reverse repo |
| Inflation (CPI) | 3.7% | Sep 2026 | +0.3 pp in 3 months | Core 2.6% · Fed target 2% |
| 5y5y inflation expectations | 2.31% | Oct 20, 2026 | +3 bp in 13 weeks | Anchored near 2–2.5% |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2.35% | Oct 20, 2026 | +9 bp in 13 weeks | Average inflation priced for the next 10 years |
| Sahm rule (recession signal) | 0.00 | Sep 2026 | −0.07 in 3 months | Below the 0.50 recession trigger |
| Real GDP growth | 2.2% | Q2 2026 | −0.5 pp in 1 quarter | +0.6% on the quarter (+2.2% annualised) |
| Industrial production | 2.3% | Sep 2026 | +0.8 pp in 3 months | Output up on a year earlier |
| Retail sales volume | 1.6% | Jul 2026 | +0.1 pp in 3 months | Volumes up on a year earlier |
| Chicago Fed activity index | 0.01 | Aug 2026 | +0.04 in 3 months | Above-trend growth |
| OECD leading indicator | 101.0 | Sep 2026 | +0.2 in 3 months | Above trend, rising over 3 months |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | Sep 2026 | 0.0 pp in 3 months | -0.1 pp on a year earlier |
| Payroll jobs | 0.3% | Sep 2026 | +0.1 pp in 3 months | +29k jobs last month |
| Wage growth | 3.0% | Sep 2026 | −0.4 pp in 3 months | Real pay -0.7% after inflation |
| Core PCE inflation | 3.0% | Aug 2026 | −0.1 pp in 3 months | Above the 2% target |
| Services vs goods inflation | 3.2% | Sep 2026 | +0.0 pp in 3 months | Services 3.2% · goods 0.7% |
| Energy and food inflation | 20.4% | Sep 2026 | +4.9 pp in 3 months | Energy +20.4% · food +2.5% |
| Yield curve: 10y minus 2y | +33 bp | Oct 20, 2026 | −3 bp in 13 weeks | Positive slope |
| Real policy rate | 1.31% | Sep 2026 | +0.25 pp in 3 months | Policy rate above core inflation |
| Bank lending standards | 0.0% | Q3 2026 | −8.1 pp in 1 quarter | No net change in standards |
Not shown for United States: Purchasing-manager surveys (ISM, S&P Global) are licensed data; the Chicago Fed activity index is shown instead.
Key readings
Financial stress
Below-average stress
−0.72
+0.16 in 13 weeks · Oct 9, 2026
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. Zero is normal; spikes mark market stress (2008, 2020).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, via FRED · source
Net liquidity
Fed assets minus the Treasury account and reverse repo
$5.87tn
−$115bn in 13 weeks · Oct 14, 2026
Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account and overnight reverse repo — the reserves left in the system.
Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (H.4.1); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, via FRED · source
Inflation (CPI)
Core 2.6% · Fed target 2%
3.7%
+0.3 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
Consumer prices vs a year earlier. Core leaves out energy and food, the most volatile parts, so it shows the underlying trend better. The Fed's 2% target is defined on PCE prices, which usually run a little below CPI.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED · source
5y5y inflation expectations
Anchored near 2–2.5%
2.31%
+3 bp in 13 weeks · Oct 20, 2026
Market-implied average inflation over the five years starting five years from now (TIPS vs Treasuries).
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, via FRED · source
10-year breakeven inflation
Average inflation priced for the next 10 years
2.35%
+9 bp in 13 weeks · Oct 20, 2026
10-year Treasury yield minus the 10-year TIPS yield.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, via FRED · source
Sahm rule (recession signal)
Below the 0.50 recession trigger
0.00
−0.07 in 3 months · Sep 2026
How far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point of the past 12 months, in percentage points. In the US, a rise of 0.50 or more has marked the start of every recession since 1970. This is the official real-time version.
Source: Claudia Sahm; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, via FRED · source
More indicators
Growth & activity
Real GDP growth
+0.6% on the quarter (+2.2% annualised)
2.2%
−0.5 pp in 1 quarter · Q2 2026
Inflation-adjusted economic output vs the same quarter a year earlier; the read gives the latest quarter's change. The US reports the annualised quarterly rate as its headline figure.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED · source
Industrial production
Output up on a year earlier
2.3%
+0.8 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
Output of factories, mines and utilities vs a year earlier. Volatile, but often turns early in a downturn.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (G.17), via FRED · source
Retail sales volume
Volumes up on a year earlier
1.6%
+0.1 pp in 3 months · Jul 2026
Retail sales adjusted for prices, vs a year earlier: a read on consumer spending.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
Chicago Fed activity index
Above-trend growth
0.01
+0.04 in 3 months · Aug 2026
A weighted average of 85 US activity indicators (3-month average). Zero is trend growth; a reading below −0.70 after an expansion has historically signalled a recession. A free stand-in for purchasing-manager surveys, which are licensed.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, via FRED · source
OECD leading indicator
Above trend, rising over 3 months
101.0
+0.2 in 3 months · Sep 2026
The OECD's Composite Leading Indicator, built to anticipate turning points in activity six to nine months ahead. 100 is the long-term trend.
Source: OECD, Composite Leading Indicator · source
Jobs & wages
Unemployment rate
-0.1 pp on a year earlier
4.2%
0.0 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
Share of people in the labour force who are out of work and looking for a job.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED · source
Payroll jobs
+29k jobs last month
0.3%
+0.1 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
Jobs on US employer payrolls vs a year earlier; the read gives the latest month's change. The most watched US jobs number.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED · source
Wage growth
Real pay -0.7% after inflation
3.0%
−0.4 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
Average hourly earnings in the private sector vs a year earlier. When pay grows faster than prices, real incomes are rising; the read compares it with headline inflation.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED · source
Inflation detail
Core PCE inflation
Above the 2% target
3.0%
−0.1 pp in 3 months · Aug 2026
Prices of what households buy, excluding food and energy, vs a year earlier. The Fed's 2% target is defined on PCE prices, and core PCE is its preferred trend gauge.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, via FRED · source
Services vs goods inflation
Services 3.2% · goods 0.7%
3.2%
+0.0 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
Services inflation follows wages and is usually the slowest part to cool; goods prices follow supply chains and the currency. Services here exclude energy services; core goods exclude food and energy.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED · source
Energy and food inflation
Energy +20.4% · food +2.5%
20.4%
+4.9 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
The volatile parts of inflation, vs a year earlier. They swing with oil, gas and crop prices and feed through to the headline rate fast.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED · source
Rates & credit
Yield curve: 10y minus 2y
Positive slope
+33 bp
−3 bp in 13 weeks · Oct 20, 2026
Ten-year minus two-year government bond yield. An inverted curve (below zero) has come before most US recessions, usually with a long and variable lag.
Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury · source
Real policy rate
Policy rate above core inflation
1.31%
+0.25 pp in 3 months · Sep 2026
The Fed's policy rate (the midpoint of its target range) minus core inflation over the past year. Above zero, policy is restraining the economy in real terms; how high counts as tight depends on the neutral rate, which nobody observes directly.
Source: BIS central bank policy rates; inflation as above · source
Bank lending standards
No net change in standards
0.0%
−8.1 pp in 1 quarter · Q3 2026
Net share of US banks tightening their standards for business loans, from the Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey. Sharp tightening has accompanied past downturns.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Senior Loan Officer Survey, via FRED · source
This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED terms of use.