Fed rate expectations for the 28 Oct 2026 FOMC meeting: hold, 50 of 51 houses

What research expects for 28 Oct 2026

Hike 1Hold 50

Hike 1 Hold 50 Cut 0

One vote per research house: its most recent published view on this meeting, from 115 views published between 23 Sep 2026 and 27 Oct 2026.

What Fed officials project

One FOMC participant Median

Horizon	Median projection	Change from today	Quarter-point moves
End of 2026	4.125%	+25 bp	1 hike
End of 2027	4.125%	+25 bp	1 hike
End of 2028	3.875%	0 bp	no change
End of 2029	3.625%	−25 bp	1 cut
Longer run	3.25%	−62 bp	2 cuts

Source: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections, 16 Sep 2026 · Change from today’s target midpoint (3.875%).

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<iframe src="https://finchiefs.com/embed/fed-dot-plot" title="Fed dot plot | FinChiefs" width="100%" height="460" style="border:0;max-width:880px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px/1.5 sans-serif;margin:4px 0 0">Chart: <a href="https://finchiefs.com/data/fed-dot-plot">Fed dot plot</a> by FinChiefs. Data: Federal Reserve, Summary of Economic Projections.</p>

Fed funds target, last 5 years

Source: BIS central bank policy rates. BIS records the midpoint of the target range.

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<iframe src="https://finchiefs.com/embed/policy-rate-federal-reserve" title="Federal Reserve fed funds target (midpoint) since 1990 | FinChiefs" width="100%" height="330" style="border:0;max-width:880px" loading="lazy"></iframe>
<p style="font:12px/1.5 sans-serif;margin:4px 0 0">Chart: <a href="https://finchiefs.com/data/policy-rates/federal-reserve">Federal Reserve fed funds target (midpoint) since 1990</a> by FinChiefs. Data: BIS central bank policy rates.</p>

What markets price

Meeting-by-meeting probabilities for the Fed, from fed funds futures, are published by CME Group in its FedWatch tool.

Questions

When is the next Fed meeting?

The next FOMC rate decision is on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. The fed funds target range is 3.75–4.00% today, after a +25 bp move on 17 Sep 2026.

What do economists expect the Fed to do?

Hold, 50 of 51 houses: the latest published view of each research house on the 28 Oct 2026 meeting, 1 expecting a hike, 50 a hold and 0 a cut (views from 23 Sep 2026 to 27 Oct 2026).

Where do Fed officials see rates going?

In the Sep 2026 dot plot, the median FOMC participant saw the fed funds rate at 4.125% at the end of 2026 (1 hike from today), 4.125% at the end of 2027 and 3.25% in the longer run. Each dot is one participant's own view, not a Committee decision.

What are the market-implied odds for the next Fed meeting?

Futures traders price the odds of each Fed decision from fed funds futures. CME Group publishes them meeting by meeting in its FedWatch tool, linked on this page; they are CME's data and are not reproduced here.

Is this a forecast?

No. It brings together what Fed officials project and what research houses expect; FinChiefs takes no view of its own. Not investment advice.

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