The readings that move UK markets in one place: inflation, jobs, growth and financial conditions, 15 indicators in all, each with ten years of history and a link to the official source.
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Change | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial stress (CISS) | 0.003 | Oct 19, 2026 | −0.012 in 13 weeks | Low systemic stress |
| Inflation (CPI) | 3.3% | Aug 2026 | +0.3 pp in 3 months | Core 2.9% · BoE target 2% |
| 5y5y inflation expectations (RPI) | 3.09% | Oct 19, 2026 | +11 bp in 13 weeks | RPI-based; RPI runs about a point above CPI |
| 10-year implied inflation (RPI) | 3.37% | Oct 19, 2026 | +13 bp in 13 weeks | Average RPI inflation priced for the next 10 years |
| Sahm-style rule (recession signal) | 0.20 | Jun 2026 | −0.17 in 3 months | Below the 0.50 recession trigger |
| Real GDP growth | 1.4% | Q2 2026 | +0.5 pp in 1 quarter | +0.5% on the quarter (+2.1% annualised) |
| Industrial production | 0.6% | Jul 2026 | +0.5 pp in 3 months | Output up on a year earlier |
| Retail sales volume | 2.7% | Aug 2026 | −1.8 pp in 3 months | Volumes up on a year earlier |
| OECD leading indicator | 101.4 | Sep 2026 | +0.8 in 3 months | Above trend, rising over 3 months |
| Unemployment rate | 4.9% | Jun 2026 | 0.0 pp in 3 months | +0.2 pp on a year earlier |
| Wage growth | 2.4% | Jul 2026 | −2.5 pp in 3 months | Real pay -0.7% after inflation |
| Services vs goods inflation | 3.6% | Aug 2026 | 0.0 pp in 3 months | Services 3.6% · goods 2.7% |
| Energy and food inflation | 13.8% | Aug 2026 | +6.4 pp in 3 months | Energy +13.8% · food +1.3% |
| Yield curve: 10y minus 2y | +71 bp | Oct 19, 2026 | −7 bp in 13 weeks | Positive slope |
| Real policy rate | 0.85% | Aug 2026 | −0.10 pp in 3 months | Policy rate above core inflation |
Not shown for United Kingdom: No weekly Bank of England balance-sheet series is published in a reusable form yet. Business surveys (PMIs, CBI) are licensed data.
ECB Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress for the UK, one method across markets: 0 = calm, 1 = crisis-level stress.
Source: European Central Bank, Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) · source
Consumer prices vs a year earlier. Core leaves out energy and food, the most volatile parts, so it shows the underlying trend better.
Source: OECD, consumer price indices · source
Average RPI inflation priced for the five years starting five years from now, from the Bank of England's implied inflation curve.
Source: Bank of England, implied inflation curve · source
From the Bank of England's implied inflation curve (gilts vs index-linked gilts). RPI usually runs above CPI, so this reads higher than the 2% CPI target.
Source: Bank of England, implied inflation curve · source
How far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point of the past 12 months, in percentage points. In the US, a rise of 0.50 or more has marked the start of every recession since 1970. Here FinChiefs applies the same formula to the UK unemployment rate, using today's revised data. It is not an official indicator, and the 0.50 line has not been proven outside the US.
Source: OECD, monthly unemployment rates · source
Inflation-adjusted economic output vs the same quarter a year earlier; the read gives the latest quarter's change.
Source: OECD, quarterly national accounts · source
Output of factories, mines and utilities vs a year earlier. Volatile, but often turns early in a downturn.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
Retail sales adjusted for prices, vs a year earlier: a read on consumer spending.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
The OECD's Composite Leading Indicator, built to anticipate turning points in activity six to nine months ahead. 100 is the long-term trend.
Source: OECD, Composite Leading Indicator · source
Share of people in the labour force who are out of work and looking for a job.
Source: OECD, monthly unemployment rates · source
Hourly earnings in manufacturing (the OECD's comparable measure) vs a year earlier. When pay grows faster than prices, real incomes are rising; the read compares it with headline inflation.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
Services inflation follows wages and is usually the slowest part to cool; goods prices follow supply chains and the currency. UK goods here include food and energy.
Source: OECD, consumer price indices · source
The volatile parts of inflation, vs a year earlier. They swing with oil, gas and crop prices and feed through to the headline rate fast.
Source: OECD, consumer price indices · source
Ten-year minus two-year government bond yield. An inverted curve (below zero) has come before most US recessions, usually with a long and variable lag.
Source: Bank of England · source
The Bank of England's Bank Rate minus core inflation over the past year. Above zero, policy is restraining the economy in real terms; how high counts as tight depends on the neutral rate, which nobody observes directly.
Source: BIS central bank policy rates; inflation as above · source