Stance over time
Each dot is one speech or statement by the BoJ, scored from dovish to hawkish; the line is the trailing 30-day average. Hover a dot for the date and speaker.
Latest decision
The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, as underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and financial conditions remain accommodative.
- Rate
- Uncollateralized overnight call rate
- Vote
- 7-2
Decision history
| Date | Action | Rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | Hike +25bp | 1.25% | 7-2 |
| 31 Jul 2026 | Hold | 1.00% | 8-1 |
BoJ forecasts: real GDP growth
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 0.6% | ▲ +0.1 | 0.8% | ▲ +0.1 |
BoJ forecasts: inflation
| Economy | 2026 | Revision | 2027 | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japancore | 2.5% | ▼ -0.1 | 2.6% | unchanged |
| Japan | 2.5% | ▼ -0.3 | 2.4% | ▲ +0.1 |
Revision is the change from the bank’s previous edition, in percentage points.
Recent speeches and statements
- 15 Oct 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.3Koeda Junko
Given considerable upside risks to prices and still accommodative financial conditions, the Bank should not become overly cautious about raising the policy interest rate, adjusting it in a timely manner.
inflationpolicy rateneutral ratebalance sheetaiSpeech by Board Member KOEDA in Kumamoto (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan) → - 5 Oct 2026 · SpeechNeutral 0.0Shinichi Uchida
The Bank will continue to carefully examine economic and financial indicators to grasp the impact of AI adoption, aiming for balanced decisions that neither under- nor overestimate AI's effects.
aiproductivitylabour marketfinancial conditionsOpening Remarks by Deputy Governor UCHIDA at the ECONDAT 2026 Fall Meeting (AI, Big Data, and Monetary Policy) → - 30 Sep 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.3Bank of Japan
With underlying CPI inflation approaching 2% and financial conditions accommodative, it is appropriate for the Bank to continue raising the policy interest rate and adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation.
inflationpolicy rateneutral rateenergyfxSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on September 17 and 18, 2026 → - 27 Sep 2026 · MinutesHawkish +0.5Bank of Japan
Members agreed core CPI is likely to accelerate to a level clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026 before declining toward around 2%, while financial conditions remain accommodative even after the rate hikes.
inflationenergywagesfinancial conditionsartificial intelligenceMinutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 30 and 31, 2026 → - 18 Sep 2026 · Rate decisionHawkish +1.2Hike +25bpBank of Japan
The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, as underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and financial conditions remain accommodative.
interest ratesinflationfxenergyai demandChange in the Guideline for Money Market Operations → - 18 Sep 2026 · Rate decisionHawkish +1.5Hike +25bpBank of Japan
The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, in response to developments in economic activity, prices and financial conditions, while considering the timing and pace of adjustment.
policy rateinflationeconomic activityai demandmiddle east(Reference) Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations (September 2026 MPM) → - 10 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5Masu Kazuyuki
The Bank needs to raise the policy rate further so that it falls solidly within the estimated neutral range; it will continue to raise rates and adjust the degree of accommodation, considering timing and pace.
inflationinterest rateswagesenergybalance sheetSpeech by Board Member MASU in Fukui (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan) → - 10 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.3Kazuyuki Masu
The Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation. It needs to raise the rate further so it sits solidly within the estimated neutral range (1.1-2.5%), and ensure underlying inflation does not significantly exceed 2%.
inflationneutral interest rateenergywagesbalance sheetEconomic activity, prices, and monetary policy in Japan → - 2 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.6TAKATA Hajime
2026 is a regime change: rate hikes will no longer follow a fixed pace but be nimble and data-dependent, guided by domestic financial conditions and overseas developments, not bound by market-anticipated intervals or the expected neutral rate.
monetary policyinflationneutral ratejgb marketenergyEconomic activity, prices, and monetary policy in Japan → - 2 Sep 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.5Takata Hajime
Takata proposed raising the policy rate to 1.25% in July and sees 2026 as a regime change in which rate hikes are conducted nimbly and data-dependently rather than at a fixed pace.
inflationpolicy ratewagesenergyfxSpeech by Board Member TAKATA in Sapporo (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan) → - 27 Aug 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0HIMINO Ryozo
Given that underlying inflation has been approaching 2 percent and financial conditions are accommodative, the Bank should continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, paying greater attention to upside risks to prices.
inflationpolicy ratefxenergyaiSpeech by Deputy Governor HIMINO in Saitama (Japan's Economy and Monetary Policy) → - 27 Aug 2026 · SpeechHawkish +1.0HIMINO Ryozo
Given that underlying inflation has been approaching 2 percent and financial conditions remain accommodative, the Bank should continue to raise the policy rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation in a timely manner, paying greater attention to upside price risks than in the past.
inflationmonetary policyenergyfxai demandJapan's economy and monetary policy → - 17 Aug 2026 · ProjectionsHawkish +1.5Bank of Japan
Given underlying CPI inflation approaching 2% and accommodative financial conditions, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
inflationenergyfxaipolicy rateHighlights of the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026) → - 12 Aug 2026 · ResearchBank of Japan
The Bank plans to reduce monthly JGB purchases by about 200 billion yen each quarter from April-June 2026 so that they reach about 2 trillion yen in January-March 2027.
market operationsbalance sheetjgb marketmoney markets(Research Paper) Market Operations in Fiscal 2025 → - 9 Aug 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.3Bank of Japan
Given underlying CPI inflation approaching 2% and accommodative financial conditions, it is appropriate for the Bank to continue to raise the policy interest rate; some members see a faster pace of hikes than markets expect.
inflationpolicy rateenergyfxaiSummary of Opinions at the Monetary Policy Meeting on July 30 and 31, 2026 → - 4 Aug 2026 · MinutesHawkish +1.0Bank of Japan
Most members said that, given current circumstances, it was necessary to pay closer attention to upside risks to prices than to downside risks to economic activity.
inflationenergyinflation expectationswagesfinancial conditionsMinutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on June 15 and 16, 2026 → - 4 Aug 2026 · ResearchBank of Japan
The Bank decided at its June 2026 MPM to halt reducing JGB purchases from April 2027 and buy around 2 trillion yen per month; holdings are projected 36-39% below June 2024 by March 2030.
balance sheetjgb marketbond yieldsmarket functioning(BOJ Review) Impact of the Bank of Japan's Reductions in JGB Purchases on the JGB Markets → - 3 Aug 2026 · ProjectionsHawkish +1.3Bank of Japan
Given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and financial conditions are accommodative, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
inflationpolicy rateenergyfxaiOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026, full text) → - 31 Jul 2026 · ProjectionsHawkish +1.5Bank of Japan
Given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and financial conditions are accommodative, the Bank will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.
inflationenergyfxai demandpolicy rateOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (July 2026, The Bank's View) → - 31 Jul 2026 · Rate decisionHawkish +0.5HoldBank of Japan
The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.0 percent. One board member (Takata) dissented, proposing a hike to 1.25 percent to respond nimbly to upside price risks.
policy rateinflation risksoverseas economyfinancial conditionsStatement on Monetary Policy → - 22 Jul 2026 · ResearchBank of Japan
The BOJ intends to engage more proactively in EMEAP and ASEAN+3 while expanding bilateral cooperation with central banks in rising economies such as India and Vietnam.
regional cooperationfinancial stabilityasiacross-border payments(BOJ Review) The Development and Strengthening of International Forums in Asia with the Participation of the Bank of Japan →
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How this page is made
We collect what central banks and multilateral institutions publish: rate decisions, meeting minutes, officials’ speeches and staff projections. AI reads each document and records who is speaking, whether they vote on policy, the forward guidance, any decision taken and any forecasts.
Stance is scored from strongly dovish (−2) to strongly hawkish (+2): above +0.2 reads as hawkish, below −0.2 as dovish, in between as neutral. It is an interpretation of the wording, not an official classification. Figures are as stated in the source document; always check the original, linked from every entry.