The readings that move euro-area markets in one place: inflation, jobs, growth and financial conditions, 15 indicators in all, each with ten years of history and a link to the official source.
| Indicator | Latest | Period | Change | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial stress (CISS) | 0.010 | Oct 19, 2026 | −0.001 in 13 weeks | Low systemic stress |
| Eurosystem balance sheet | €5.93tn | Oct 16, 2026 | −€14bn in 13 weeks | ECB and national central banks, total assets |
| Inflation (HICP) | 3.8% | Sep 2026 | +1.0 pp in 3 months | Core 2.5% · ECB target 2% |
| Long-term inflation expectations (survey) | 2.04% | Q3 2026 | +0.01 pp in 1 quarter | Near the 2% target |
| Sahm-style rule (recession signal) | 0.10 | Aug 2026 | 0.00 in 3 months | Below the 0.50 recession trigger |
| Real GDP growth | 1.2% | Q2 2026 | +0.6 pp in 1 quarter | +0.6% on the quarter (+2.6% annualised) |
| Industrial production | −0.2% | Jul 2026 | −0.5 pp in 3 months | Output down on a year earlier |
| Retail sales volume | 0.8% | Jul 2026 | −0.1 pp in 3 months | Volumes up on a year earlier |
| Economic sentiment (ESI) | 97.9 | Sep 2026 | +2.3 in 3 months | Below its long-run average |
| Unemployment rate | 6.4% | Aug 2026 | 0.0 pp in 3 months | +0.1 pp on a year earlier |
| Wage growth | 3.4% | Q2 2026 | −0.3 pp in 1 quarter | Real pay +0.4% after inflation |
| Services vs goods inflation | 3.2% | Sep 2026 | 0.0 pp in 3 months | Services 3.2% · goods 1.1% |
| Energy and food inflation | 18.9% | Sep 2026 | +10.4 pp in 3 months | Energy +18.9% · food +1.3% |
| Yield curve: 10y minus 2y | +42 bp | Oct 19, 2026 | −2 bp in 13 weeks | Positive slope |
| Real policy rate | 0.00% | Sep 2026 | +0.15 pp in 3 months | Policy rate equal to core inflation |
Not shown for Euro area: Market-based inflation expectations (inflation swaps) are licensed data; the ECB's survey of professional forecasters is shown instead. The OECD publishes no leading indicator for the euro area.
ECB Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress for the euro area, one method across markets: 0 = calm, 1 = crisis-level stress.
Source: European Central Bank, Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS) · source
Total assets of the Eurosystem, weekly. Shrinks as bond holdings roll off and long-term loans are repaid.
Source: European Central Bank, Eurosystem consolidated weekly financial statement · source
Consumer prices vs a year earlier. Core leaves out energy and food, the most volatile parts, so it shows the underlying trend better. The ECB aims for 2% over the medium term.
Source: Eurostat / European Central Bank, HICP · source
What professional forecasters polled by the ECB expect inflation to average four to five years ahead. Market-based measures (inflation swaps) are licensed data, so this survey is the free benchmark.
Source: European Central Bank, Survey of Professional Forecasters · source
How far the 3-month average unemployment rate has risen above its lowest point of the past 12 months, in percentage points. In the US, a rise of 0.50 or more has marked the start of every recession since 1970. Here FinChiefs applies the same formula to the euro-area unemployment rate, using today's revised data. It is not an official indicator, and the 0.50 line has not been proven outside the US.
Source: OECD, monthly unemployment rates · source
Inflation-adjusted economic output vs the same quarter a year earlier; the read gives the latest quarter's change.
Source: Eurostat / European Central Bank, national accounts · source
Output of factories, mines and utilities vs a year earlier. Volatile, but often turns early in a downturn.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
Retail sales adjusted for prices, vs a year earlier: a read on consumer spending.
Source: OECD, Key Economic Indicators · source
The European Commission's monthly survey of businesses and consumers. 100 is the long-run average. A free, official counterpart to purchasing-manager surveys, which are licensed.
Source: European Commission, Business and Consumer Surveys (via Eurostat) · source
Share of people in the labour force who are out of work and looking for a job.
Source: OECD, monthly unemployment rates · source
Compensation per employee vs a year earlier. When pay grows faster than prices, real incomes are rising; the read compares it with headline inflation.
Source: Eurostat / European Central Bank, national accounts · source
Services inflation follows wages and is usually the slowest part to cool; goods prices follow supply chains and the currency.
Source: Eurostat / European Central Bank, HICP · source
The volatile parts of inflation, vs a year earlier. They swing with oil, gas and crop prices and feed through to the headline rate fast.
Source: Eurostat / European Central Bank, HICP · source
Ten-year minus two-year government bond yield. An inverted curve (below zero) has come before most US recessions, usually with a long and variable lag.
Source: European Central Bank · source
The ECB's deposit facility rate minus core inflation over the past year. Above zero, policy is restraining the economy in real terms; how high counts as tight depends on the neutral rate, which nobody observes directly.
Source: European Central Bank; inflation as above · source