Deposit rate and the market-implied path
Source: Eurex (Deutsche Börse AG), Three-Month €STR futures, 15-minute delayed data; €STR from the European Central Bank. Trades on 26 Oct 2026. FinChiefs calculations from Eurex delayed trade data. Meetings that fall in the same quarterly contract are split by assumption, so beyond the next meeting the total change is firmer than each meeting's odds. Delayed data
Probability of a hike, hold or cut at each ECB meeting
| Meeting | Implied rate | Change from today | Hike | Hold | Cut | Most likely rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | 2.51% | +1 bp | 4% | 96% | 0% | 2.50% (96%) |
| 17 Dec 2026 | 2.69% | +19 bp | 73% | 27% | 0% | 2.75% (71%) |
| 4 Feb 2027 | 2.83% | +33 bp | 53% | 47% | 0% | 2.75% (47%) |
| 18 Mar 2027 | 2.92% | +42 bp | 39% | 61% | 0% | 3.00% (42%) |
| 29 Apr 2027 | 3.02% | +52 bp | 38% | 62% | 0% | 3.00% (39%) |
| 10 Jun 2027 | 3.11% | +61 bp | 37% | 63% | 0% | 3.00% (33%) |
| 22 Jul 2027 | 3.16% | +66 bp | 20% | 80% | 0% | 3.25% (32%) |
Hike / hold / cut: the odds of each meeting’s own decision. Implied rate and most likely rate: where the deposit rate stands after that meeting, counting every meeting before it.
Questions
What do markets expect the ECB to do at its next meeting?
Markets price no change at the ECB's next meeting on 29 Oct (96%); in all, +19 bp by 17 Dec and +52 bp by 29 Apr 2027. That is the pricing of Eurex Three-Month €STR futures on 26 Oct 2026; the deposit facility rate is 2.50% today.
Where do markets see the ECB deposit rate by Jul 2027?
Futures imply a deposit facility rate of about 3.16% after the 22 Jul 2027 meeting, +66 bp from today. The most likely single level then is 3.25%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
Each Three-Month €STR future settles on the euro short-term rate compounded over a quarter. €STR only moves when an ECB decision takes effect, so the futures prices pin down how much the rate is expected to move at each meeting. A move worth 10 bp is read as a 40% chance of a quarter-point step, the same convention as the CME FedWatch tool. Two meetings inside the same quarter are split by assumption, so the total change is firmer than the odds of each later meeting.
Is this a forecast?
No. It is what market prices imply, which also carries a small risk premium; it is not a forecast or a recommendation by FinChiefs. For what economists at banks and research houses expect, see the meeting preview.
More on the ECB
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