Assets

• Cross-assetEnergy is now the swing factor across every asset class. Middle East tensions are lifting crude, gasoline and diesel, pushing bond yields higher, and unwinding the AI and semiconductor trade that had led equities.
• GoldGold outlook splits by time horizon, with near-term caution dominating but a structural bull case still on the table.
• OilPublished research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with near-universal agreement that Middle East risk is pushing prices higher across crude and refined products.
• Natural gasNatural gas is flashing bullish across the board, according to research published this week — both European benchmarks and some emerging-market domestic markets.
• BitcoinBitcoin's near-term setup is drawing a distinctly bearish tone from published research this week, with no meaningful bullish counterweight in view.
• US equitiesPublished research this week leans bearish on US equities, but with a real split beneath the surface.
• European equitiesEuropean equities are flashing a bearish tactical signal today, with the DAX under real pressure and chip-adjacent names bearing the brunt of the selling.
• US bondsPublished research is genuinely split on where US Treasury yields go from here — and it's a real directional fight, not just a timing gap.
• EU bondsEuropean sovereign bond yields look set to grind higher, according to the bulk of published research this week — with peripheral spreads, especially Italy and Belgium, at particular risk of widening.
• EUR/USDPublished research this week is uniformly constructive on the euro against the dollar — but the conviction sits at the multi-year horizon, not the next few weeks.

Macro

• Macro themesTwo forces are pulling markets in opposite directions right now: an energy supply shock tied to US-Iran tensions is lifting oil and gas, while a softer-than-expected June US inflation print has cooled Fed hike bets.