Two forces are pulling markets in opposite directions right now: an energy supply shock tied to US-Iran tensions is lifting oil and gas, while a softer-than-expected June US inflation print has cooled Fed hike bets.
The published research consensus flags Strait of Hormuz disruption as the central energy risk, with WTI back above $80 and European gas elevated — enough, some argue, to unwind the disinflation June CPI just delivered (headline -0.4% MoM, core 2.6% YoY). Market-implied odds of a July Fed hike have collapsed to around 10%. Still, one camp of analysts warns new Fed Chair Warsh is striking a hawkish tone and resisting dovish pivots.
Overseas, researchers see the ECB drifting toward a September hike as energy feeds Euro-area inflation, the BoE holding amid UK labour softness, Korea starting to tighten, and pressure building on the BOJ to act.
A contrarian thread of recent research also questions AI capex, citing a 17% monthly drop in chip stocks and rising competition from China's open-source models — though others still defend the cycle's durability.