Natural gas is flashing bullish across the board, according to research published this week — both European benchmarks and some emerging-market domestic markets.
The core argument from one camp of analysts: European gas faces serious upside risk if Qatari LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into winter. Storage could fall short, and the roughly EUR 57–58/MWh risk premium already baked into prices may not be enough. UK-focused work reinforces this, noting prices have already jumped 35–40% off recent lows, and Britain's heavy gas dependency leaves it especially exposed if geopolitical stress worsens.
A structurally different thread points to Uzbekistan: domestic output reportedly down 15% year-on-year in Q1 2026, export revenues collapsing, and growing reliance on pricier Russian pipeline imports. Researchers argue that story pushes domestic prices higher regardless of what happens in the Middle East.
The published split is regional: Europe is a geopolitics-and-LNG story, while Uzbekistan is a supply-depletion story on its own timeline.