Published research this week is uniformly constructive on the euro against the dollar — but the conviction sits at the multi-year horizon, not the next few weeks.
One strand of recent analysis targets EUR/USD at 1.21 by December 2028, pointing to recovering European growth, a softer dollar as the Fed holds steady, and eventual ECB normalization relative to US policy. A separate published view frames euro strength as a structural rather than tactical story, warning that continued appreciation over the next two years will weigh on Dutch export competitiveness, especially against the US.
The most detailed forecast path in circulation traces EUR/USD from roughly 1.05 in early 2025 to 1.16–1.18 by end-2026, with ECB rate cuts lagging Fed easing and modest euro-area growth improvement doing the work. Cyclical and strategic frameworks in that research line up at 1.16–1.18, reinforcing the same directional call.
The common thread across these published views: broad dollar weakness as policy rates eventually converge.