Energy is now the swing factor across every asset class. Middle East tensions are lifting crude, gasoline and diesel, pushing bond yields higher, and unwinding the AI and semiconductor trade that had led equities.
Where the published research consensus is tightest: oil. A broad range of analysts point to US-Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz risk and record refinery margins as reasons crude has further upside. Researchers are similarly aligned that tech and chips face more near-term pressure from crowded positioning and a rotation into value.
On US 10-year Treasury yields, one camp of analysts sees more upside near-term on sticky inflation and a hawkish Fed, while a contrarian thread argues the Fed will be cutting over the next two years — a split more about horizon than direction.
Gold is the sharpest genuine disagreement. Some recently-published views are tactically bearish given higher yields and a firm dollar; others make a structural bull case toward $5,000/oz by end-2027, anchored in emerging-market central bank buying. Researchers also argue wheat has upside on Black Sea and drought risks, and that the yen should strengthen if the BoJ normalises.