Published research this week leans bearish on US equities, but with a real split beneath the surface.
The dominant view across recently-published notes is that a violent rotation out of growth and into value is underway, driven by leverage unwinds, crowded positioning in AI and chip names, and softer guidance from tech bellwethers like Netflix and Intuitive Surgical. Several analyst camps flag stretched retail leverage — including through levered ETFs — as an accelerant, with the Nasdaq 100 seen as most exposed.
Semiconductors are where the disagreement is sharpest. Most research argues for further downside in memory and broader chip names over the coming weeks. A contrarian thread frames the roughly 25% pullback as a buying opportunity — same eventual bottom, opposite tactical stance.
A constructive counter-current also holds: some strategists point to resilient consumer spending, earnings breadth broadening beyond megacap tech, and energy strength on Middle East risk as reasons to stay overweight US large caps. Consumer staples are cited as an attractive rotation destination.