Published research this week is overwhelmingly bullish on oil, with near-universal agreement that Middle East risk is pushing prices higher across crude and refined products.
The dominant catalyst analysts cite is the escalating US-Iran conflict and its impact on Strait of Hormuz shipping, which has already lifted WTI back above $80/bbl. Multiple research desks flag tanker disruptions as the primary upside driver. A second layer of support, researchers argue, comes from supply stress: record-high refining margins, war damage to Russian refineries, and years of underinvestment in new production — all keeping inventories tight. One published view notes current inventory levels have historically been consistent with $120/bbl, with a $150 spike not off the table if conflict worsens.
On refined products, the consensus flags diesel as the tightest sub-market and warns wholesale gasoline futures are already pricing pump increases above $4.20/gallon within a week — a July CPI concern.
The lone bearish case, from one house, sees Brent easing to $80 in Q3 — but only if Hormuz traffic normalizes.