Published research is genuinely split on where US Treasury yields go from here — and it's a real directional fight, not just a timing gap.
On the bearish side for bonds, one strand of research sees the 10Y yield climbing toward 4.85% by late 2028 on sticky inflation, fiscal strain, and supply-driven curve steepening. Another camp argues the Fed will have to tighten more than markets price over the next six months. A separate note flags geopolitical risk (US–Iran tensions) nudging the 10Y toward 4.6% near-term, while others cite resilient consumer spending to justify higher front-end yields.
On the bullish side for bonds, a contrarian thread points to inflation breakevens well below the Fed's target and expects both 2Y and 10Y yields to drift lower across the cycle. Softer recent CPI and PPI prints reinforce that view.
Elsewhere in credit, some recently-published work flags spread widening in US investment-grade tech as hyperscaler issuance surges, with one projection seeing 10Y BBB spreads widening materially over two years.