Assets

• Cross-assetA single event — the US-Iran interim deal and expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — is moving nearly every asset class in the same direction today, and published research is reading it as a fast unwind of the war…
• GoldGold research is split: most published views see near-term weakness or consolidation, but the longer-term bullish case remains intact.
• SilverSilver is getting an unusually clean bullish read across published research this week — bullish in the near term and bullish over the long run, just for different reasons.
• CopperCopper's long-term bull case is getting fresh reinforcement from the supply side, according to research published this week.
• OilPublished research this week leans heavily bearish on crude in the near term, with most analysts expecting Brent, WTI, and refined product prices to fall as the reported US-Iran agreement reopens the Strait of Hormuz…
• Natural gasNatural gas is splitting in two directions right now, and the benchmark you watch determines the story.
• BitcoinBitcoin calls are sharply split right now, with no consensus on near-term direction.
• US equitiesPublished research is leaning strongly bullish on US equities right now, with two catalysts doing most of the work: an expected US-Iran ceasefire lifting risk sentiment, and the AI and SpaceX IPO cycle pulling capital…
• European equitiesEuropean equities are catching a bullish tactical bid on the back of the US-Iran framework deal — but the FTSE 100 is the odd one out.
• US bondsPublished research this week leans toward US Treasury yields staying elevated or grinding higher, with only narrow, event-driven paths to a near-term pullback.
• EU bondsEuropean bond yields look set to grind higher into year-end, according to a broad sweep of recently published research — with German Bunds the one short-term exception.
• EUR/USDEuro vs dollar: the research split is about timing, not direction.

Macro

• Macro themesTwo stories are dominating macro desks this week: a US-Iran ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and a rare cluster of central bank decisions landing within days of each other.