Two stories are dominating macro desks this week: a US-Iran ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, and a rare cluster of central bank decisions landing within days of each other.
Researchers broadly agree the framework deal is the day's biggest catalyst, with Brent dropping toward $83–87 and a risk-on bid across equities and cyclical currencies. That said, a cautious thread of recent analysis warns the MOU leaves sanctions relief, nuclear guarantees, and reparations unresolved — meaning oil relief may be gradual, and mine-clearing delays plus thin inventories could keep a floor under prices.
On central banks, the published consensus flags the Fed's June meeting as pivotal: new Chair Kevin Warsh is widely expected to drop the prior easing bias and potentially shift the dot plot hawkishly, even with rates on hold. Some analysts lean toward a clear hawkish regime shift; others expect a more cautious, data-dependent tone. The BOJ is expected to hike 25bp to 1.00%, with Deputy Governor Uchida's press conference in focus as Governor Ueda is absent. RBA and BOE are seen holding.
Oil-importing Asian economies are flagged as the main beneficiaries; energy exporters face headwinds.