European equities are catching a bullish tactical bid on the back of the US-Iran framework deal — but the FTSE 100 is the odd one out.
Researchers argue the geopolitical de-escalation removes a key risk premium that had been weighing on European markets, with one published view putting the DAX firmly above 25,000 in the immediate aftermath of deal confirmation. A broader strand of recent research reinforces the bullish case for non-US equities more generally, citing resilient earnings, the ongoing AI investment cycle, and rising capital spending tied to strategic autonomy.
The contrarian note comes on the FTSE 100: some analysts flag that its heavy energy weighting makes it tactically vulnerable, since the same peace deal lifting other indices is also pressuring oil prices. It's less a real disagreement than a sector-composition story — industrial and consumer-tilted indices win, energy-tilted ones lag.
On single names, one published view highlights TUI and Lufthansa as prior conflict losers likely to attract renewed buying as long as the ceasefire holds.