European bond yields look set to grind higher into year-end, according to a broad sweep of recently published research — with German Bunds the one short-term exception.
The core argument across analysts: eurozone inflation isn't done. One forecast tracked this week sees eurozone CPI at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, with researchers expecting two more 25bp ECB hikes to lift the deposit rate to 2.5% by year-end. Analysts point to ECB President Lagarde's signal after the June hike that broadening price pressures justify further tightening, and frame European policymakers as willing to accept softer growth to keep inflation expectations anchored.
On long rates, published views tie Dutch 10-year yields and euro 10-year swaps to elevated energy prices and Middle East risk, with calls for both to sit more than 20bps higher by year-end and swaps anchored near 3%. A separate research thread flags fiscal strains as a driver of long-end volatility over the next six months.
The dissent is narrow: one contrarian view sees Bund yields dipping near-term on peace-deal optimism — a tactical call, not a challenge to the higher-yields consensus.