Euro vs dollar: the research split is about timing, not direction.
Published research this week lays out two views on EUR/USD that look opposed but actually sit on different horizons.
One camp of analysts sees near-term dollar strength dragging the pair down toward 1.13–1.14 over the summer. Their reasoning: sticky US inflation, high energy prices, and a resilient American labor market keep the Federal Reserve on hold deep into 2027, extending the dollar's cyclical run. They also argue the eurozone is more exposed to a stagflation shock than the US, which would weigh on the euro even if the ECB hikes again.
A separate thread of recently-published research takes the opposite structural angle, targeting 1.21 by late 2026 and 1.25 by late 2027. That call leans on gradual Middle East normalization, persistent price pressures, and a slow global diversification away from the dollar.
The published consensus is that these aren't really in conflict: a dip to 1.13–1.14 in the near term could set up the longer-run euro recovery the structural camp expects.