Published research this week leans heavily bearish on crude in the near term, with most analysts expecting Brent, WTI, and refined product prices to fall as the reported US-Iran agreement reopens the Strait of Hormuz and strips out the war-risk premium.
The consensus across multiple research notes ties the move directly to that diplomatic track. One analysis argues global supply is already in surplus by 1.5–2 million barrels per day thanks to US replacement flows and softer Chinese demand, with Iranian sanctions waivers potentially adding another 0.75 million — pointing to Brent below $70. A separate cyclical forecast pencils in roughly $87 for Q3. On refined products, researchers project Australian petrol near $2.05/l and diesel near $2.39/l through 2026, while US gasoline is expected to ease as Strait flows resume. One tactical call targets WTI at $70–$75 and suggests shorting bounces above $82.
A contrarian thread of recent research still sees upside — one outlier flags Brent above $110 this summer on inventory drawdowns, and a structural camp argues chronic underinvestment supports oil into 2029–2030. Most of the bull case, though, is conditional on the deal failing.