Natural gas is splitting in two directions right now, and the benchmark you watch determines the story.
Published research this week argues US Henry Hub gas has a constructive setup: one analytical camp points to a technical accumulation zone around $3.05–$3.15 that it sees as decoupled from crude oil, with a target above $4 absent a weather shock — driven by domestic storage and fundamentals rather than geopolitics.
European TTF gas is a different picture. Researchers note that LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz have resumed following the US–Iran agreement, easing the supply scare that had supported European prices. With EU storage already above 44% and injection season ongoing, the consensus view points to continued softness.
A contrarian thread frames natural gas more broadly as a sustained beneficiary of Middle East supply risk, arguing prices stay elevated through end-2026 — but that view explicitly assumes the Hormuz disruption returns rather than resolves.
So the apparent disagreement is really a scenario split, not a true clash of calls.