A single event — the US-Iran interim deal and expected reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — is moving nearly every asset class in the same direction today, and published research is reading it as a fast unwind of the war risk premium, with energy as the channel into everything else.
The published research consensus is heavily skewed bearish on oil: most analysts expect Brent and WTI lower as Hormuz reopens. One camp of analysts holds that Brent could fall below $70 by month-end, pointing to an existing 1.5–2 mb/d supply surplus that a sanctions waiver would deepen. A contrarian thread argues prices stay elevated — and even pushes the Fed back into hikes — if the ceasefire frays.
Researchers broadly argue global equities rally near-term on improved risk sentiment, with tech, travel names, and parts of Asia favored. Most also see the dollar softer as safe-haven demand fades, and align on a 25bp BoJ hike to 1.0% at the June meeting.
Treasuries are the real split: some recently-published views see yields sticky on inflation and supply; others see them falling if the Fed stays on hold and cheaper energy filters through.