Assets

• Cross-assetToday's published research points to one dominant story: a geopolitical supply shock is pushing the global economy into a stagflation-shaped regime, with oil as the transmission belt into nearly every other asset.
• GoldGold is splitting the research community right now, and the debate is sharper than usual.
• SilverSilver is getting bullish attention from published research right now — but on two very different clocks.
• CopperCopper looks structurally and tactically bid, according to recently published research.
• OilPublished oil research is leaning heavily bullish, and the pivot point is the Strait of Hormuz.
• Natural gasPublished research is broadly bullish on natural gas — both European TTF and Asian LNG — across tactical, cyclical, and structural horizons, with no notable dissent in this week's reads.
• BitcoinBitcoin is caught between near-term downside risk and a longer-term value case, according to recently published research.
• US equitiesUS equities: published research is sharply split between an AI-driven melt-up and a late-cycle warning.
• European equitiesEuropean equities are splitting hard between index-level caution and select sector bullishness, according to research published this week.
• EU bondsPublished research is broadly aligned: European rates are heading higher in the near term, with the ECB widely expected to deliver at least one — and likely two — hikes that push Eurozone government bond yields and…
• EUR/USDEUR/USD has no clean consensus right now — the split is really about time horizon.

Macro

• Macro themesTwo stories are dominating macro this week, and published research says they're colliding.