Published oil research is leaning heavily bullish, and the pivot point is the Strait of Hormuz.
Roughly a fifth of the world's oil and LNG moves through that chokepoint, and most analysts tracking the situation argue the current disruption and US-Iran tensions are keeping a firm bid under crude even as physical supply tightens. One published base case sees the Strait staying shut into September, with Brent averaging $120 in Q3 and spiking near $140 before easing to $100 in Q4. A more scenario-based research view spans a quick reopening sending Brent to $80–90, an extended closure stoking stagflation, or infrastructure damage permanently lifting long-dated futures. Technical analysis circulating this week notes WTI holding key support around $86.30, reinforcing the bullish setup.
Refined products are flagged as the tighter squeeze — researchers argue diesel and especially jet fuel inventories could hit critical lows by midsummer. One published spike scenario floats $150 Brent if stocks empty with Hormuz still closed.
The bearish camp is conditional: a contrarian thread argues that once a US-Iran deal reopens shipping, distant futures could collapse toward $75 as producers rush to restart cash flow. Strip out those conditions and the consensus points one direction — up.