Published research is broadly bullish on natural gas — both European TTF and Asian LNG — across tactical, cyclical, and structural horizons, with no notable dissent in this week's reads.
The headline driver, according to recent analysis, is the Hormuz disruption. One estimate suggests the closure has removed more than 10% of global LNG supply. With EU storage already running well below its five-year average, researchers argue that weak forward-market incentives to refill ahead of winter — combined with the risk of Asian buyers stepping into the spot market — keep persistent upward pressure on European prices. The published consensus points to TTF averaging around €60/MWh in Q3 2026, with structural tightness extending into winter 2026/27, and JKM Asian LNG forecast near $18.45/MMBtu in 2026 and $17/MMBtu in 2027.
A more fundamental thread argues natural gas is the most underpriced energy asset relative to oil on a BTU basis, irrespective of near-term geopolitics. Tactically, some analysts flag TTF gains beyond 49.29 toward the 51.54–52.60 zone.