US equities: published research is sharply split between an AI-driven melt-up and a late-cycle warning.
The bull case, as several research notes argue this week, rests on S&P 500 forward earnings up roughly 29% year-over-year — a pace only seen coming out of the GFC and pandemic — plus multi-year AI infrastructure spending and positioning models flipping the Nasdaq from net short to net long. One camp frames the US as the clearest global growth engine right now.
The bear case, from a contrarian thread of recent research, draws explicit 1999–2000 parallels: a semiconductor ETF up 76% in 44 days, leverage embedded in options and ETF structures, and record IPO lockup expirations set to flood the market with supply. Some recently-published views are tactically bullish near-term but turn bearish over 6–18 months as sticky inflation limits the Fed and AI capex growth slows.
On single names, the published consensus stays constructive on Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet for cash flows and AI exposure, while Micron splits researchers cleanly — structural bulls versus cyclical bears.