Two stories are dominating macro this week, and published research says they're colliding.
First: a breakdown in US-Iran talks and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A wide range of analysts flag this as the single biggest real-economy risk right now, with some warning that crude, diesel, and jet fuel inventories are thin enough that Brent could spike to $120–$150 if the strait stays blocked into Q3.
Second: researchers broadly agree that AI-driven capital spending is extending the US equity rally and lifting chip earnings — while quietly adding to inflation through energy demand and construction labor tightness.
The policy split is widening. The consensus view is the Fed holds rates into late 2026, while the ECB and Bank of England are tightening into energy-driven inflation. Korea and New Zealand are leaning hawkish; Australia is cautious on soft growth.
Where research diverges: one camp sees structurally higher inflation for years; another argues tariff and shelter pressures fade once the energy shock resolves. A contrarian thread also warns AI capex returns remain elusive despite heavy spend.