Gold is splitting the research community right now, and the debate is sharper than usual.
Most published analysis leans bullish. One tactical read points to a bounce off key support levels driving near-term momentum across precious metals. A separate camp argues that if geopolitical risk escalates — think a prolonged Hormuz disruption or wider conflict — gold works as a hedge, though they caution past haven rallies have been inconsistent in size. A longer-term structural thesis circulating in recent research grounds the bull case in fiscal unsustainability, sovereign debt strain, and the prospect of governments monetising deficits, with some projections floating $10,000–$20,000 over a multi-year horizon. Others anchor bullishness to a weaker dollar and structurally higher inflation, or simply hold gold as a conservative hedge against what they view as overheated US equities.
The contrarian view: unresolved Iran talks are keeping inflation expectations elevated, strengthening the dollar and lifting bond yields — which dulls gold's appeal. On this read, gold still sits roughly 15% below pre-war levels.
The real disagreement is whether rate-and-dollar pressure outweighs haven demand.