EUR/USD has no clean consensus right now — the split is really about time horizon.
Near-term, researchers lean bearish on the euro. The published case rests on safe-haven dollar demand, Middle East conflict risk, and the chance that any Hormuz de-escalation underwhelms over a one-month view. A separate strand of analysis argues something more structural: ECB tightening into a weak eurozone economy is fundamentally euro-negative, making the dollar the better cyclical hold. Technicians add that EUR/USD trading below its 200-day moving average is its own bearish signal.
On the other side, some recently published views frame firmer ECB rate expectations and a fully priced June hike as supportive, with rebounding oil lifting European front-end yields and capping the dollar in the very short term.
Looking further out, a constructive thread of research sees EUR/USD recovering in H2 2026 on Middle East de-escalation and potential Fed cuts — though analysts flag that slower eurozone growth and energy vulnerability likely cap the upside.